The main contract of the liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) futures of the Dalian Mercantile Exchange fell 5.07% to $639.00/Ton

The main contract of the liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) futures of the Dalian Mercantile Exchange fell 5.07% to $639.00/Ton

Liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) increased its position and fell after opening on the 12th, falling more than 5% at the end of the day, and hit a new low of $640.00/ton in more than 10 months. The lack of support on the cost side and the difficulty of finding more profits on the supply and demand side have increased the selling pressure on the LPG market. From the cost side, the crude oil price fell continuously last week and repeatedly hit new lows in the year, making the LPG cost side insufficient. In addition, from the perspective of supply and demand, according to Guotai Jun'an Futures, the oil price has fallen in succession, which is associated with the lower price of propylene and butane in the external market. The congestion of the Panama Canal has improved, the freight has also declined, and the support for import costs has weakened. On the domestic supply side, due to the reduction of Shenghong Refining&Chemical's export, the commodity volume has declined, but the supply side is still under pressure due to the high inventory in some regions. However, the agency also suggested that a new wave of cold air is coming this week, and the marginal improvement of combustion demand; Moreover, the current panel price is still larger than the spot discount, and the warehouse receipts have been cancelled successively due to the stronger basis. On the whole, the agency believes that there is limited space for the LPG disk to continue to decline, and the short-term low consolidation shocks.

Low sulfur fuel oil (LU2301) fell by 11.48% within the day. Everbright Futures commented that last week, the international oil price fell in shock, and the Singapore fuel oil market was also weak in shock. In terms of fundamentals, the market for low sulfur fuel oil is relatively strong, while the market for high sulfur fuel oil continues to be under pressure. It is expected that the Asian low sulfur fuel oil market will still be supported in the first half of December, partly due to the reduction of arbitrage transactions from the West in December and the limited supply of qualified fuel oil in the coming weeks. Singapore is expected to import 1.3-16 million tons of low sulfur fuel oil from western Suez in December, lower than the 1.5-18 million tons in November. The supply of low sulfur fuel oil is expected to remain tight in the next few weeks. Then, from the end of December to January, the supply will loosen marginally with the increase of arbitrage trading volume from the West. The contradiction of oversupply of high sulfur fuel oil still exists, and Russian fuel oil exports remain at a high level. In the short term, the fuel oil itself lacks an obvious upward drive, and the absolute price is expected to fluctuate with the crude oil range.