From 20th to 26th February, China's comprehensive import CIF index of liquefied propane and butane was 147.3 points and 157.46 points

On 1th March, the comprehensive import CIF price index of China's liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) released by the Global Trade Monitoring and Analysis Center of the General Administration of Customs and the Shanghai Petroleum and Natural Gas Trading Center showed that from February 20th to 26th, the comprehensive import CIF price index of China's liquefied propane was 147.3 points, a year-on-year decrease of 0.75% and a year-on-year increase of 2.44%; China's comprehensive import CIF index of liquefied butane was 157.46 points, up 0.47% month-on-month and 7.98% year-on-year.

In terms of international pricing benchmark, according to the data released by CP in March 2023 of Saudi Aramco; The contract price (CP) of propane in March was 720 US dollars/ton, down from 70 US dollars/ton last month, down 8.86% month-on-month and 19.55% year-on-year; The contract price (CP) of butane in March was 740 US dollars/ton, down 50 US dollars/ton from the previous month, down 6.33% month-on-month and 19.57% from the same period last year; In March, Saudi Arabia's CP was significantly reduced, which may affect the current domestic and international LPG market price level.

In terms of international prices, the international price of LPG has a high positive correlation with the price of crude oil. From the perspective of crude oil prices, the fluctuation range of international oil prices showed a downward trend last week, but the oil prices on both sides of the Atlantic Ocean showed a pattern of ups and downs when the oil market weighed the long and short factors. The prospect of a strong recovery in China's oil demand and Russia's planned production reduction in March exceeded the previously announced range, these positive factors pushed Brent oil price slightly higher on a month-on-month basis, while the expectation of the Federal Reserve to continue to raise interest rates strengthened the US dollar, and the US crude oil inventory continued to increase significantly, resulting in a slight decline in WTI oil price on a month-on-month basis. As of last Friday, the settlement prices of WTI and Brent crude oil futures main contracts were 76.32 US dollars/barrel and 83.16 US dollars/barrel respectively, down 0.03% and up 0.19% from the previous week. The recent fluctuation trend of international oil prices may affect the price level of LPG market at home and abroad to some extent. Due to the trade process, the CIF price of LPG imports in China often lags behind the futures price and spot price in the international market for a period of time, and the impact of the recent price fluctuation of LPG outside will gradually appear in the later CIF price of LPG imports.

In the domestic market, supply increased, demand decreased, and the market trading atmosphere weakened. From the perspective of supply side, the actual arrival volume of domestic imported LPG last week was 506400 tons, and the arrival cargo resources are still mainly concentrated in East China; The domestic gas volume mainly comes from local refineries, and the domestic LPG production in the week rose from the previous week; On the whole, the total domestic LPG supply in the week increased compared with the previous week, and the supply-side fundamentals preferred. From the demand side, the demand for civil fuel combustion slows down; The industrial demand has declined recently. Specifically, in the field of chemical deep processing: in the field of propane deep processing, the operating rate of PDH device has decreased, and the demand for propane chemical industry has decreased; In the field of butane deep processing, the operating rate of MTBE was flat, the operating rate of alkylation decreased, and the demand for butane chemical industry decreased. Overall, the amount of resources arriving at the port last week met the expectation; Domestic gas volume rose from the previous week, and the overall market supply increased from the previous week; The demand for civil gas decreased; Industrial demand declined, propane chemical demand declined, and butane chemical demand declined. Last week, the prices of various products in the domestic liquefied gas industry chain weakened, and the international market was dominated by bad news. The landed cost of liquefied gas imports dropped sharply.

The compilation of China's comprehensive import CIF price index of LPG was completed by the cooperation of the Global Trade Monitoring and Analysis Center of the General Administration of Customs and the Shanghai Oil and Gas Trading Center, Taking the first calendar week of 2019 as the base period (the CIF price of China's comprehensive import of liquefied propane in the current week is 3541 RMB/ton, and the price index is 100; the CIF price of China's comprehensive import of liquefied butane in the current week is 3535 RMB/ton, and the price index is 100), comprehensively reflecting the price level of China's LPG import in the previous week. This is a useful exploration for China to prepare its own LPG benchmark price, which is conducive to improving market transparency, providing an important reference basis for the marketization of LPG chemical industry, facilitating the timely and effective connection between the domestic market and the international market, and further enhancing China's influence in the international LPG market.